Understanding Hype Cycles as a Project Manager: When to Ride the Wave and When to Step Back

Cemre Akkartal Project Management
8 min. read

As a project manager, it can feel like every year (or even every quarter!) brings a new “game-changing” technology. From blockchain to AI, quantum computing to virtual reality—there’s no shortage of hype. But how do you know when these emerging technologies will truly deliver value for your project and organization, versus when they’re just the trend of the moment? That’s where the hype cycle comes into play.

In this blog post, we’ll break down what hype cycles are, why they matter to project managers, and how to determine when to bring new technologies into your projects. We’ll also explore real-world examples from diverse industries and share practical strategies for harnessing—rather than being blindsided by—“the next big thing.”

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What Is a Hype Cycle?

Coined and popularized by Gartner, the hype cycle visually illustrates the typical progression of new technologies from over-enthusiasm to disillusionment before evolving into mainstream adoption. While there are different frameworks, most follow five key phases:

  1. Innovation Trigger: A breakthrough or initial product launch generates press and industry buzz.
  2. Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early success stories, media hype, and venture capital investments fuel unrealistic expectations.
  3. Trough of Disillusionment: When initial results fall short, interest wanes. Failures become more visible, and the technology’s limitations are laid bare.
  4. Slope of Enlightenment: Realistic, practical understandings of the technology emerge. Companies figure out viable use cases.
  5. Plateau of Productivity: The technology matures, delivering tangible benefits. Adoption is more widespread, and best practices are established.

Understanding this curve is crucial for project managers who must weigh the benefits and drawbacks of incorporating trending technologies into their projects.

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Why Hype Cycles Matter to Project Managers

  1. Resource Allocation
    Your job as a project manager is to deliver the best results within given constraints—time, budget, and scope. An emerging technology still riding the “peak of inflated expectations” could require significant resources with uncertain returns, risking project success.
  2. Strategic Timing
    Adopting a technology during the “trough of disillusionment” might open up opportunities for innovation at a more affordable cost. On the flip side, waiting too long—well into the “plateau of productivity”—might mean missing out on early competitive advantages.
  3. Stakeholder Management
    Sponsors and stakeholders can get caught up in the hype. They might push for trendy tech because it’s in the headlines, even if it doesn’t serve the project’s objectives. Understanding the hype cycle enables you to manage expectations and make data-driven recommendations.

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Pros and Cons of Embracing Hype Technology

Pros

  1. Early-Mover Advantage: If you adopt a technology early and it proves successful, you can gain a significant competitive edge.
  2. Increased Engagement: Trendy technologies often attract talent and attention, which can boost team morale or stakeholder excitement.
  3. Innovation Culture: Incorporating cutting-edge solutions can foster a culture of innovation, opening the door to new skills and knowledge within your organization.

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Cons

  1. Uncertain ROI: Hype technologies often lack proven track records or standard frameworks, making it difficult to estimate benefits, timeline, or costs.
  2. Skill Gaps: Adopting emerging tech might require niche expertise. Finding the right talent could be time-consuming and expensive.
  3. Security and Compliance Risks: New technologies often come with untested security and regulatory challenges. Early adopters may face higher risks and liabilities.

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When (and How) to Incorporate a Trending Technology

  1. Align with Business Goals: Before jumping in, validate that the technology aligns with core objectives and project scope. Don’t adopt blockchain just to “have blockchain”—make sure it addresses a real business problem, like transparent supply chain tracking.
  2. Perform Thorough Due Diligence: Collect as much data as possible—pilot projects, case studies, vendor references. If the technology is so new that data is scarce, consider doing a small proof of concept (PoC) first.
  3. Risk Assessment and Mitigation: Develop scenarios for success and failure. If a pilot fails, can you revert to a more traditional solution? What additional security measures might be required?
  4. Plan for Scalability: Ensure that you can scale the technology once it crosses into the “slope of enlightenment.” Early architectural decisions can either enable seamless scaling or lead to costly rework.
  5. Stakeholder Education: Keep sponsors and team members informed of the technology’s hype cycle phase and realistic expectations for results. Transparency fosters trust and helps avoid inflated expectations.

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Diverse Industry Examples

  1. Healthcare: AI Diagnostics
    • Hype Cycle Phase: AI in diagnostics has passed the initial “peak of inflated expectations” and is moving through the “trough of disillusionment.” While AI can analyze X-rays or CT scans at lightning speed, integrating these tools into clinical workflows and gaining regulatory approval has proven more complex than initially hyped.
    • Key Takeaway: Small-scale pilot projects that collect performance data against actual patient outcomes can help demonstrate tangible ROI and lay the groundwork for scaled adoption.
  2. Manufacturing: Industrial IoT (IIoT)
    • Hype Cycle Phase: IIoT sensors for real-time machine monitoring once experienced sky-high expectations. They are now steadily moving up the “slope of enlightenment.”
    • Key Takeaway: Early adopters faced connectivity issues and security challenges. However, those who persisted are now reaping benefits in predictive maintenance, reducing downtime, and optimizing production lines.
  3. Finance: Blockchain for Payments
    • Hype Cycle Phase: Blockchain experienced a massive peak of hype around cryptocurrency adoption. It went through a trough as many pilot projects stalled. Today, blockchain solutions for cross-border payments and recordkeeping are beginning to hit the “slope of enlightenment” in some financial sectors.
    • Key Takeaway: Conduct a thorough use-case analysis. Blockchain solutions can be powerful in niche applications (e.g., cross-border settlements, supply chain finance) but are not universally beneficial for all payment challenges.
  4. Construction: 3D Printing of Buildings
    • Hype Cycle Phase: When first introduced, 3D printing for full-scale buildings soared on the “peak of inflated expectations,” promising rapid construction at drastically reduced costs. Reality set in with regulatory hurdles, material limitations, and scale challenges. Now it’s navigating the “trough of disillusionment.”
    • Key Takeaway: While large-scale 3D-printed construction is still evolving, smaller use cases like printing specific structural components are finding success. Adopting the technology in incremental stages helps mitigate risk.
  5. Retail: Virtual and Augmented Reality (VR/AR)
    • Hype Cycle Phase: VR/AR retail solutions—like virtual fitting rooms—hit a high point of expectation, but many retailers found low customer adoption. With user experience improvements and cost reductions, VR/AR is climbing the “slope of enlightenment.”
    • Key Takeaway: Rather than a full deployment, some retailers introduced small “test stores” with VR/AR experiences. This measured approach helped refine best practices and minimized upfront investment.

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Practical Tips for Project Managers

  1. Continuous Learning: Keep tabs on hype cycle reports, industry publications, and expert analyses. Subscribe to relevant newsletters, attend conferences, or join professional groups to stay updated on emerging trends. You can also stay up-to-date on project management trends by enrolling in Master of Project Academy’s Sandbox Membership.
  2. Collaborate with Experts: Build relationships with internal and external subject-matter experts (SMEs). Their firsthand knowledge can be invaluable in separating myth from reality.
  3. Pilot Projects Over Big Bang: Start small with focused pilot tests or PoCs. This approach provides tangible insights and minimizes risk. If results are promising, you can scale up quickly.
  4. Build Flexibility into Plans: Use agile methodologies where appropriate. Agile frameworks allow you to iteratively incorporate feedback and pivot more easily if a technology fails to deliver.
  5. Maintain Realistic Expectations: It’s easy for stakeholders to get swept up in the hype. Regular status updates and metrics can help keep expectations in check and demonstrate actual progress versus anticipated returns.

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Conclusion

Hype cycles are a powerful tool to help project managers make informed decisions about integrating emerging technologies. By understanding where a technology sits on the hype curve—and assessing its alignment with your project’s goals—you can better anticipate challenges, manage stakeholder expectations, and drive meaningful, lasting innovation.

Ultimately, the key is balance: Embrace new technologies when the timing and use case are right, but stay vigilant about over-promising and under-delivering. Keep the hype cycle in mind, and you’ll be well-prepared to navigate the waves of innovation, ensuring your projects remain both current and successful in a rapidly evolving business landscape.

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