The cure for optimism isn’t pessimism. It’s data from projects that already finished. The first three parts of this series diagnosed the disease. Whenever several estimates compete and the most extreme one wins, the winner is the one who was most wrong. Cursed bids, cursed business cases, cursed deadlines. This part is the treatment. Five […]
Tag: reference class forecasting
Optimism Bias in Project Management: Why Your Best Business Case Is the Most Dangerous One
The project that got funded is the one whose estimate was furthest from reality. That isn’t bad luck. It’s selection. Every quarter, a room of executives looks at a stack of proposals and funds a few. The ones that win have the best numbers: the highest return, the lowest cost, the shortest timeline. Ask yourself […]